Take yourself back in time to California, the Gold Rush, 1849. You’re prospecting for gold. You’ve had a pretty good run of luck.
So you decide it’s time to clean up and go into the big city to celebrate.
You stumble out of one of the saloons, having spent most of your money on women and wine — and you’re about to squander the rest — when you hear someone call out to you.
From the inky shadows emerges a well-dressed gentleman who proposes a game of chance. He says, “I have this little silk bag. In it are three cards. One of them is green on both sides. Another one is red on both sides. And the third is red on one side and green on the other.
“I’m going to allow you to inspect the bag and put the cards inside. Without looking, I will let you pull one of the cards and place it on this little table in front of me without revealing what’s on the bottom of the card.”
You reach into the bag, deftly pull out one card, and put it on the table. You see a red face.
The con man says, “I’ll bet you even money that the other side of the card is also red.”
Should you take the bet? Why or Why Not?